According to the latest data from Polymarket, there is just a 14% chance of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot Ethereum ETF.
Users of the renowned prediction markets platform are a lot less optimistic after the SEC continued to scrutinise cryptocurrencies.
Market expectations remain skeptical with the figure holding from March – further highlighting a cautious approach regarding the potential financial product.
Historically, the SEC have been very reluctant towards new ETF’s that have been linked to cryptocurrencies. Users of Polymarket are more than aware of this and remain uncertain of the outcome.
Ethereum ETF Approval
Last month, betting patterns indicated a fairly even split amongst its users who were wagering on the market. Some were very optimistic with others very much feeling the opposite ahead of the proposed deadline of May 31.
Recent activity from the SEC suggests the approval isn’t likely. Prospects have taken a nosedive ever since the investigation into Ethereum’s classification.
It was only recently that Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse slammed the SEC. He suggested they had acted ‘outside of the law’ and wanted a change in approach to Ethereum.
Spot Ethereum proposals will initiate a public comment period via the SEC in the near future. Grayscale, Fidelity and Bitwise are all likely to voice their inputs.
With that in mind, views around the classification of Ethereum via the public comment period has been met with mixed feedback.
There are those who believe it is purely a delay tactic, whereas others firmly believe it will provide a step towards transparency.
Clearer regulatory frameworks are essential to avoid market confusion, according to leaders in the industry. Previously, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler indicated Ethereum would be classified as a security.
However, Ethereum has been catagorized as a commodity which has only added to the confusion and delay. Polymarket users are most definitely taking a cautious approach ahead of the expected summer outcome.
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