Nevada Gaming Control Board Chairman Mike Dreitzer called the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s new prediction market rules sports betting under another name, describing the federal distinction between event contracts and wagers as “an untenable distinction without a difference.”
Dreitzer made the remarks on October 14, 2026 during the Indian Gaming Association’s weekly webinar, five days after the CFTC advanced a two-part rulemaking on event contracts. He said the move did not surprise him.
What the CFTC proposed
The CFTC issued two proposals on October 9. One would expand the federal definition of a swap, a derivative under commodities law, to include event contracts tied to sports, politics, weather and cultural events. The other, an interim final rule effective upon publication in the Federal Register, excludes casino-style gambling, including sportsbook wagers and casino games, from that swap definition.
Dreitzer said the CFTC is working “in lock step” with the Designated Contract Markets, the CFTC-registered exchanges where prediction market operators such as Kalshi trade. He compared a $10 bet on an NFL game with a $10 contract on the same outcome and said the transactions are effectively identical.
Why the distinction matters
The swap definition is the legal foundation on which prediction market operators claim exemption from state gambling laws. The Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals has reportedly ruled unanimously against Kalshi in a case brought by Ohio and Tennessee regulators, finding prediction markets are not exempt from state gambling regulation, including taxes, and Kalshi filed for a rehearing the same day the CFTC advanced its rules.
Dreitzer also argued that exiting a position before a match ends does not set event contracts apart, because online sportsbooks have long offered cash-out features.
Sports event contracts remain unavailable in Nevada and Michigan, and Google’s advertising policy blocks prediction market ads in Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio, the five states that have sued operators. Underdog has sued seven states, adding Tennessee on October 14 after the state threatened fines and revocation of its fantasy sports license.
